Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-06 10.423044 11.952096 13.601061 15.508236 17.649858 19.977001 22.693602
2025-07-13 8.338405 10.441936 12.887461 15.926995 19.588767 23.842372 29.140923
2025-07-20 7.248304 9.605049 12.479225 16.216617 20.919265 26.609029 33.979337
2025-07-27 6.262342 8.739437 11.894693 16.167795 21.756808 28.766152 38.161544
2025-08-03 5.453394 7.968396 11.297272 15.968569 22.286778 30.458638 41.735982
2025-08-10 4.865608 7.415044 10.909501 15.973043 23.030618 32.412271 45.696403
2025-08-17 4.424865 7.009588 10.667593 16.124943 23.940305 34.587404 50.012617
2025-08-24 3.995824 6.570200 10.326903 16.089051 24.554753 36.356533 53.824042
2025-08-31 3.599074 6.134772 9.945682 15.947864 24.982996 37.855334 57.293566
2025-09-07 3.312746 5.839637 9.742691 16.042153 25.738439 39.829403 61.499252
2025-09-14 3.143377 5.713581 9.783515 16.499037 27.044756 42.644278 67.026532
2025-09-21 2.856951 5.364602 9.441192 16.325602 27.365035 43.998709 70.437937
2025-09-28 2.472144 4.815403 8.738751 15.538113 26.697054 43.856317 71.639187
2025-10-05 2.346583 4.709648 8.762079 15.933512 27.924437 46.665294 77.458188
2025-10-12 2.216524 4.581426 8.733274 16.231827 28.998272 49.266890 83.044237
2025-10-19 2.042133 4.353054 8.510637 16.179956 29.483028 50.947337 87.239306
2025-10-26 1.863320 4.097747 8.218123 15.981642 29.701175 52.195374 90.778204
2025-11-02 1.730206 3.918565 8.048545 15.985752 30.257081 54.006027 95.283720
2025-11-09 1.628328 3.792069 7.965865 16.137889 31.071225 56.268054 100.603980
2025-11-16 1.511783 3.623356 7.789074 16.101926 31.545080 57.970450 105.049794
2025-11-23 1.393335 3.438379 7.565549 15.960655 31.816304 59.330289 108.959273
2025-11-30 1.310819 3.323187 7.470228 16.055006 32.515025 61.443874 114.213367
2025-12-07 1.271560 3.300849 7.559905 16.512217 33.902707 64.805290 121.722814